Kalshi’s NBA market has priced the Washington Wizards at a 94% chance of finishing the upcoming season with the league’s worst record. The contract pays a modest $0.58 profit on a $10 trade if that outcome materializes, making it the highest-priced “worst-team” contract in the market.
Washington entered the 2023-24 season coming off a 17-65 campaign, the league’s poorest record last year. The franchise has finished in the bottom three for three straight seasons and has not reached the 20-win mark in any of those years, compiling a cumulative 50-196 record over that span.
The roster’s headline talent includes point guard Trae Young and forward Anthony Davis, each averaging over 20 points per game. Young is classified as an above-average three-point shooter, while Davis ranks among the league’s elite rebounders, giving the Wizards a potent offensive core on paper.
Defensive metrics, however, undercut that firepower. Young’s career defensive rating sits at 118.3, one of the highest in the NBA, indicating a significant liability on that end of the floor. While he was with the Atlanta Hawks, the team posted a 116.7 defensive rating with him on the court versus 113.3 without him, a three-point differential that underscores his impact. Davis’s injury history has also limited his availability, further weakening interior defense.
The combination of a high-scoring backcourt and a frequently sidelined frontcourt creates a stark imbalance. The market’s 94% odds reflect not only last season’s record but a pattern of underperformance that has persisted despite the presence of two All-Star caliber players. Without measurable improvement in defensive efficiency and better health for Davis, the Wizards are likely to remain at the bottom of the standings.
Looking ahead, the offseason will be pivotal. Roster decisions, draft positioning, and potential trades must address the defensive shortcomings that have plagued the team. If Washington cannot raise its defensive rating and keep its stars on the floor, the 94% probability of finishing last may become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
